Economic assessment of SRM under socio-political and geophysical tipping dynamics

Francisco Estrada, Bernardo Adolfo Bastien-Olvera, Oscar Calderón-Bustamante, Miguel A Altamirano, Rodrigo Muñoz Sánchez, Juan Moreno-Cruz and W J Wouter Botzen

IOPscience | Environmental Research: Climate

Abstract

Solar radiation modification (SRM) is increasingly discussed as a policy response to worsening climate impacts and stalled mitigation progress. Yet the viability of SRM hinges on its long-term governance, particularly the risk of abrupt and permanent termination, which could trigger rapid warming and catastrophic outcomes. Here we develop a coupled Socio-Political–Geophysical Tipping Point (SPTP–GTP) framework to assess the economic conditions under which SRM might reduce rather than amplify global risk. We introduce a novel damage function sensitive to the rate of warming and accounts for both catastrophic and non-catastrophic damages. Using reduced-complexity climate projections and a probabilistic failure modeling, we estimate the expected present value of SRM deployment across a range of governance scenarios. Our findings show that SRM only proves beneficial under a narrow intersection of robust global mitigation, extremely low failure risk, and gradual phase-out. Paradoxically, the same governance failures that make SRM politically attractive undermine the very conditions needed for its safe operation. These findings provide a quantitative, risk-risk perspective on the governance debate, suggesting that the required conditions for SRM are at odds with current socio-political realities.

Cite this article

Estrada, F. and Bastien-Olvera, B., Calderón-Bustamante, O., Altamirano, M., Muñoz Sánchez, R., Moreno-Cruz, J. y Botzen, W. Economic assessment of SRM under socio-political and geophysical tipping dynamics. Environmental Research: Climate, 4 (3) (2025) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae33df